Our Last Ride
These Trump impeachment articles, as opposed to Articles of Impeachment, (not happening this year, and probably not 2018) seem to be pretty popular among you guys. Honestly, I wish the betting markets would show a greater likelihood of Trump being impeached before the end of 2019 just because I could continue to ride this wave and deliver you guys some content that you seem to enjoy. Unfortunately, the betting markets are rapidly approaching something that actually makes sense, and the value is fading fast.
In that sense, in what might be my final editorial on Trump impeachment this year, this is something of a, ‘Last Call,’ for those of you who might wish to get an advantageous bet down...because the window is closing.
The majority of actual sportsbook sites dropped the ability for an individual to effectively bet on Trump to remain in office throughout the end of this year quite sometime ago. As I briefly discussed in my last effort.
That mostly has to do with the fact that they know any money coming in on Trump being put out of office this year is essentially free money for the sportsbooks. Granted, they are going to get punished pretty severely in the event that Trump meets his (physical) demise, but that seems like a risk that they are willing to take.
It has, and continues to be, a risk that I suggest all of you guys interested in the PredictIt market take, as well.
The number of, “Yes,” Trump will remain in office has soared to about $0.88 just over the last couple of weeks as the, “No’s,’ realize they are running out of calendar. Beyond that, maybe they have actually decided to do a non-zero amount of research on what the process of impeachment and then removal from office entails and have since realized that it is not an expedient affair by any means.
Beyond that, the Mueller investigation has not yet concluded. Many people following the news to any meaningful degree, myself included, thought that the investigation would at least be mostly over by now. At least, we expected some information to be released to the public.
In any event, recent news has it that Mueller is only now looking into a first draft of a letter that was written in support of the ouster of former F.B.I. Director, James Comey. What this means for the, ‘No,’ bettors is that this investigation is probably nowhere near 100% completion.
People following the story from the outset were under the impression that the investigation would have concluded by now, while it seems like they are at some point roughly in the middle of the process. Again, I also believed that the investigation would have made a determination by now, but my feelings were that would not leave adequate time to impeach and remove from office by the end of this year.
Furthermore, I think the, ‘No,’ bettors (at least those who were at one point) have actually decided to look into the actual process of removal from office more specifically. I don’t know what some of these bettors thought the process was for actual removal from office, (though I speculate that they believed that removal from office and impeachment are the same thing-they’re not) but either way, it seems that only now are they realizing it is a lengthy and multi-step process.
Beyond that, given the shortness of remaining calendar, news cycles that could be viewed as, ‘Negative,’ simply are not having the impact that they used to on the betting markets. Increasingly, people seem to arrive at the conclusion that it’s not going to matter anyway.
Among other recent events, Trump has been criticized for his handling of Hurricane Harvey by many in the media, but that hasn’t moved the binary number at all. You also had the public backlash over the controversial pardon of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, again, no meaningful movement towards the, “Nos.”
Ultimately, the would-be, ‘No,’ bettors have realized that it’s not going to matter. At least not this year.
Beyond that, Trump’s average approval rating according to FiveThirtyEight seems to have leveled out somewhat, hovering around 37% for the last several days.
In the meantime, the numbers of those who disapprove of Trump’s performance dropped and then rose again within the last thirty days, but ultimately, are in the same position at just under 57.5% as thirty days ago.
It’s no surprise that, however controversial, the pardon of Arpaio hasn’t mattered that much at all. The fact of the matter is that you are going to have, ‘Party-First,’ loyalists who look at Trump as one of their own. Beyond that, you are also going to have, ‘Trump-First,’ loyalists, who are going to back the guy irrespective of party identification, though they also tend to trend Conservative.
In terms of approval ratings, perhaps the most astute comparison would be to President Gerald Ford. You may have read about him, he pardoned former President Richard Nixon who resigned in disgrace following the Watergate Scandal. Nixon resigned in the face of a near-certainty that he was going to have Articles of Impeachment drafted against him and then be convicted and removed from office by the Senate. If I were alive (and writing) at that time, I would have bet how Nixon was a near-lock to be removed from office during the year that it happened. Of course, no Internet meant no Predictit or other online books, so I’m not sure if there was even a market for political betting at that time.
In terms of controversial pardons, President Ford wins that contest in a landslide! As with the Arpaio pardon, Ford’s pardon of Nixon drew sharp criticism from Democrats, but was also significantly unpopular amongst Republicans... many of whom had voted for Nixon!
Ford’s approval went from 71%-51%-39%-35% in a relative heartbeat at that time owing to the fact that such approval numbers were not taken as frequently (no Internet) and even as they were, polling averages were often not compiled. When any polls were taken, many of them were for local news publications (which increasingly do not exist) and didn’t contribute anything that was tracked to the national number.
Either way, Ford’s approval plummeted (he started out as generally fairly well-liked) in a way that has not been seen before or since, though Truman came close. Actually, the most comparable move in popularity came in FAVOR of a President, that President being George W. Bush whose popularity soared as the United States came together in solidarity after 9/11.
Granted, it is possible that a similar event (which I obviously hope doesn’t happen) would pull us together again, but I wouldn’t count on it. The first reason is that I seriously doubt anything on that scale would ever happen. The second reason is that for all of the people out there who believe that Trump can do no wrong, I would surmise that they are outnumbered about 1.5:1 by people who believe that Trump can do no right, regardless of circumstances.
Either way, the question is one of impeachment and removal. If there is going to be any correlation at all, then the correlation is going to be in terms of a President’s approval falling, as opposed to rising. In the event that Trump’s popularity were to soar, and hold for a prolonged period of time, you’re going to see these betting markets effectively disappear in a serious hurry!
With that, the fact of the matter is that Trump’s popularity at least seems as though it has hit a floor as we have reached Trump’s base and party loyalists only. I think that it would take a major faux pas of some kind for Trump’s approval to fall below 35%, and it would have to be something nearly Earth-shattering for it to drop below 30%.
As I have discussed before, we have to look first at approval that could conceivably be lost and then take a look at bases. Here is a Gallup poll that breaks it down by general party identification:
The first thing that you will notice is that, since May, Trump’s approval has been anywhere between 7-9% among self-identified Democrats. Let’s combine these numbers with some of Gallup’s overall party identification numbers.
What we see is that, most recently, 28% of voters find themselves identifying as Democrats. The reason that is relevant as it relates to Trump’s approval rating is because, Democrats essentially do not matter much at all anymore.
Trump’s Approval Rating among self-identified Democrats has been 7% more often than it has been 8% throughout the last month, so we’re going to go ahead and call it 7%. Here’s a quick and easy math lesson, how much does this 7% of Democrats who approve of Trump contribute to his overall approval rating? For that, we have to look at the percentage of people who identify as Democrats in combination with the numbers:
.07 * .28 = 0.0196 or 1.96%
In other words, Trump could lose EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT who currently approves of his performance and that would only reduce his overall approval rating by 1.96%.
Trump has been holding steady at around 37.3%, so if we assume that he loses every single Democrat, he will be reduced to an overall estimated approval rating of 35.3%. While that may seem like a pretty serious fall, it really doesn’t matter that much in political terms.
The reason why is because House/Senate Republicans are going to want to avoid challenges to them in Primary races that will take place for them next year. Beyond that, if they were to come together (and it would take Republicans) to toss out a President that some people absolutely love, that’s not going to be a slight that would soon be forgotten amongst voters.
Let us also not forget the fact that it would be unprecedented. Remember, Nixon resigned. He almost certainly would have been removed, but for those of you keeping score at home, put a checkmark in the, ‘Resignation column.’ No President has ever, in history, bar none, been removed from office by the Senate. Party loyalty is even stronger now than before as the dichotomy of the two-party system (even though Independents may eventually overtake people who identify as one or the other) has become more ingrained than ever.
Speaking of Independents, let’s take a look at them for a minute. Independents are 30% likely to approve of Trump’s performance, while 41% of people identify as Independent. In the event that Trump lost the approval of every single Independent:
.41 * .3 = .123 or 12.3%
In that case, his overall approval (this would also assume he lost almost every Democrat) would plummet by a total of nearly 14%, reducing him to an approval rating of about 23%.
Of course, this is only in theory, as a not insignificant number of Independents are actually Conservative-leaning. In a 2014 study, when prompted:
Approximately 39% of Independents admitted to leaning Republican while 6% refused to select a general leaning. At that time, only about 30% of respondents even identified as Independent to begin with, so we if want to accept that the numbers are about the same as they were before, here is what we end up with:
.39 * .41 = .1599 or 16%
What that means is that about 16% of the overall 41% of Independents should actually be expected to have a reasonably strong Republican lean. In other words, only 25% of Independents (as a share of overall voters) would even be expected to have a huge impact on the numbers. The fact of the matter is, they probably already have.
The study cited by Pew Research found that 48% of the Independents were Democratic-leaning or would identify as Democratic, if forced. If we look at that share of them amongst the 41% of Independents overall:
.48 * .41 = .1968 or 19.7%
Therefore, we arrive at some new overall numbers:
- Republican: 28%
- Democratic: 28%
- Republican-Leaning Independent: 16%
- Democratic Leaning Independent: 19.7%
- “Don’t box me in, bruv,” Independent/Other: 8.3%
As with the Democratic approval rating of 7%, I would suggest that it is fair to assume that the numbers for Democratic-leaning Independents are very similar. Let’s use our new percentages and see what we end up with:
How we are going to do this exercise is look at overall percentage contribution towards Trump’s approval rating and try to extrapolate how much of it is likely to be coming from what kind of Independent voters. We know that it’s not all coming from self-identified Republicans because, the 28% of voters whom that category represents is not sufficient, taken alone, to result in an overall approval of 37-ish%.
78% of Republicans appear to approve of Trump, hence:
.78 * .28 = .2184 or 21.84%
We know that 7% of identified Democrats approve and we have found that translates to roughly 1.96%. That brings us to a total of 23.8%.
The next thing that we can do is look at our Republican-leaning Independents. What we want to do for these guys is take the 16% of the electorate that we think they represent and apply that 78% approval amongst self-identified Republicans to them, the result:
.78 * .16 = .1248 or 12.48%
Where that puts the current total is at 36.28%, which means that we are getting really close to Trump’s actual approval rating which supports the methodology. (Yay!)
The next thing that we have to look at is Democratic-leaning Independents, or Independents who would identify as Democrats, if forced. We see that they number about 19.7% of the Electorate, and we will apply the 7% amongst Democrats to them, and end up with this:
.197 * .07 = .01379 or 1.38%.
That brings our new total up to about 37.66%, so given rounding errors, polling vagaries, and what-not, we are extremely close to Fivethirtyeight’s average. Beyond that, the current Gallup numbers being used for this writing are just a tiny bit dated, (and based on weekly numbers, not the most recent day or couple of days taken) so there are any number of reasons for us to end up off by less than 0.5%.
We didn’t end up factoring in the, “Don’t box me in, bruv,” crowd at all, but it is fairly likely that those people do not meaningfully support Trump. Beyond that, the majority of pollsters just ask you to identify as Democrat/Republican/Independent (on the whole) and do not really inquire of Independents as to specific-leaning for the purposes of Approval Ratings. That’s why I decided Lto do it and see what I could come up with.
Overall, we see that about 34.32% of Trump’s current Approval rating (37.66% with my totals), which translates to about 91.13% of ALL people who approve of him comes from Republicans and Right-leaning Independents, which should hardly be a surprise. Meantime, about 3.34% of Trump’s approval number comes from Democrats and Left-Leaning Independents (or, “Don’t Box me in, Bruv”) Independents which represent about 8.87% of all approvers.
What that means is that, when we look at our roughly 37.66% of overall approval, (and, honestly, I LOVE 538, but I tend to think they skew just a very, ever so slightly, bit left) if we assume that Trump loses every single approver who, “Doesn’t make sense,” he would be reduced to an Approval rating of about 34.32%.
Granted, those numbers would be awful, but they would only be a half of a percentage point below Gerald Ford’s lowest point ever.
Remember Ford from earlier? Pardoned Nixon. Here are a few other things he did that are noteworthy:
- Beat future President Ronald Reagan in the Primaries in 1976. (Vying for reelection)
- Carried 27 states in the General Election.
- Only lost the Popular vote in 1976 50.1%-48%.
- Lost the Electoral College by only 297-240. (Not as much as it sounds)*
*1.) He came within 11,116 votes of winning Ohio. President Jimmy Carter got 0.27% more of the vote in Ohio than Ford. Had Ford taken Ohio, the Electoral College goes to 272-265 and Carter still wins, but:
2.) Ford lost Wisconsin by 35,245 votes. Granted, that represents a favoring of Carter by about 1.58%, so it wasn’t absurdly close. However, Libertarian Ed Clark pulled over 29,000 votes (1.28%) while Independents Eugene McCarthy and Lester Maddox combined for over 64,000 votes (2.96%). Had McCarthy and Maddox managed to pull a few more votes from Carter, and had Ford improved just a little (and won Ohio) now you’re looking at 261-276, Ford.
Granted, Oregon (which Ford won) was closer than Ohio, but if you swing Ohio, Oregon and Wisconsin, Ford still wins, 270-267. There were five states won by Ford by a lesser percentage than Carter won Wisconsin, but a greater percentage than that by which Carter won Ohio. If we assume some kind of correlation in what it would have taken for Ford to win Wisconsin (in other words, perhaps a national popular vote shift of 0.25-0.5%,) then Ford would likely have still won those states by a greater degree.
Either way, the point is that it was close and Ford was historically unpopular (more unpopular than Trump has ever been...yet) at one point in his Presidency. Despite that, he still won.
The one thing that Ford did not have to deal with that Trump might is a meaningful inter-party challenge in the General Election. Ohio Governor John Kasich is considering running on a split-party Independent ticket with Democratic Governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper.
While this, “Unity Ticket,” is likely not any meaningful threat to actually take the Presidency, (so say early observations) if it happens, Kasich would likely pull some support from his home state of Ohio (which Trump won) and neighboring states Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump won Ohio pretty handily, in fairness, but it’s Kasich’s home state in which he enjoys a 57% approval rating. Beyond that, Trump won Pennsylvania by about 0.7% and Michigan by less than 0.25%.
If Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the map otherwise remains the same, bye-bye 270 vote Electoral College majority. Granted, Libertarian Candidate Bill Johnson attracted some individuals who might have otherwise gone Republican, (or normally would) but I would be hard pressed to say that Kasich wouldn’t do that to an even greater extent in those states. Besides that, I think that some Republicans (particularly Moderates) would vote for the Unity Ticket in an effort to keep Trump OUT in a way that does not require them to directly vote for the Democratic challenger.
In the meantime, Governor Hickenlooper enjoys an approval rating of 61% as of April of this year. I don’t know how that translates in Arizona, (which Trump won by 3.5% despite Johnson taking 4.13%) but one would assume that it keeps Colorado (won by Clinton) fairly safe as well as any spillover positive opinion into Nevada. (Also won by Clinton)
The point is that this, “Unity Ticket,” is probably only really bad news for Trump. I really don’t see how it doesn’t disproportionately pull from Republican voters, particularly with Kasich on top of the ticket, which I think is the idea if it happens.
Again, none of that really affects impeachment, removal from office or base approval ratings. Some might think that there is a possibility of ending up with a stronger Republican ticket in 2020 if Trump is removed from office, but that will have no direct effect on the probability of Impeachment/Removal for a few reasons:
1.) I imagine that most Republicans are going to put self before the 2020 General Presidential Election. That means that if contributing to the Impeachment/Removal is going to be a politically negative decision for them, personally (reelection, primary challenges) then they are going to be inclined not to do it.
2.) If anyone really wants to challenge believing that they can generate a stronger ticket, it can be done in the Republican Primaries. If Trump’s approval remains as it stands with Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, I would say that it is unlikely that Trump would not be nominated, but possible. That itself is interesting because in most Primaries that involve an incumbent, any challenge is typically not even meaningful.
3.) People might rally around Trump come Election Year. Let us not forget that Trump enjoyed an approval rating high of over 47% on Day 6, which means more respondents approved of him than voted for him. However, just a few days in (literally) that dropped to under 44%, which means people who don’t/didn’t approve of him voted for him anyway.
The ultimate result of all of these factors is that House/Senate Republicans and the GOP, on the whole, are kind of put in between a rock and a hard place on Trump. On the one hand, he’s not as approved even within the party as he, “Should be,” but on the other hand, he is supported enough (and staunchly supported by enough people) that any attempts to remove him don’t make much sense, either.
The main problem for Impeach/Remove bettors for years to come is that the Democrats would have to win the midterms in an absolute landslide, (not much Republican support would be needed) or Trump’s approval would have to inherently tank among the 34.32% of the people for whom it makes sense to approve of Trump for Republicans to have any political motivation to Impeach/Remove him.
That’s going to be a tall order, if you will recall when Trump said he could, “Stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone,” and, “Not lose any voters,” the people to whom he was referring are probably who remains in terms of approving of him.
If he loses those supporters, it would either take a catastrophic event in which he loses essentially everyone, or it would just be a very gradual eroding over a long period of time. Let’s do a little more extrapolation:
We have come up with the following 34.32% based on Republicans and Independents who would identify as Republican, if forced who also approve of Trump. We assume that his approval rating is at 78% among those two groups. If we assume that he loses literally everyone except these people, where must his approval rating be (overall) to only be at 60% among these people?
Going back to our numbers from earlier, we have a nice and clean 44% of individuals who are either Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents. With that, we want to know what the approval rating among these people would be for him to be at 60% among them assuming he has not one other approval in any political category. It’s easy:
.44 * .6 = .264 or 26.4%
Now you see the problem, even IF his approval dropped down to 26.4%, overall, you still have 60% of likely Republican voters who support him and approve. In general terms, for the, ‘Average,” Congressman, opposing Trump at such a juncture is still not a good idea for himself or herself. Simply put, only 4/10 Republicans (or leaners) would agree with that Congressman.
Even at an even split among likely Republican voters, Trump’s approval would still sit at 22%, overall. At that point, though, we would assume that it would be a politically neutral decision for the, ‘Average,’ Republican Congressman to move to Impeach/Remove Trump.
If we see Trump’s overall Approval drop to 30%, and assume that ALL support comes from Republican identifiers, then we have this:
In other words, while not great, it is still true that more than 2/3 individuals who lean or identify Republican would still approve of Trump. Again, that might not make it a politically savvy decision for anyone else to directly go against the guy.
Even lacking historical data, (because it has never happened) we can assume that Trump approval numbers and probability of removal are roughly inversely correlative, but they are not causative. People not liking you, simply put, is not grounds for Impeachment/Removal. While it might be advisable to, “Trump something up,” (if I may) even an approval rating of 0% is not technically in itself enough to remove a President from office absent other factors.
When we look at the question of 2018, the thing that people need to most realize is that even if the current Congress loses its Republican majority, the current Congress still remains the current Congress until 2019. Granted, Republicans who may have lost reelection bids may choose to turn on Trump, but there’s simply not likely to be enough calendar (unless the process had already started) to Impeach/Remove Trump. Besides, you would have enough winning Republicans (as well as those that would be facing reelection in 2020) that it would not be a politically intelligent move in most districts if Trump’s approval is 26.4% (or higher) as 3/5 Republicans or Independents who lean Republican would still support Trump.
I do not currently believe that Trump will be impeached/removed at all, but if he were going to be, I think 2019 would be the year. Even then, I still think it would take undeniable legal reasons for doing so because it would make sense for incumbent Congressional Democrats and for the DNC to want to face re-election (and Presidential General Election in 2020) against a historically unpopular incumbent. Remember, the ultimate goal for them is to WIN.
If in early 2019, it would give Republicans enough time to recover and perhaps mount an even stronger challenge in 2020. That could come in the form of MIke Pence, who would be an incumbent. Again, we see how close Ford came after Nixon resigned in disgrace.
The, “Yes,” on Trump to remain until at least the end of 2018 is going for $0.64/share on PredictIt. I have already discussed this market and stated that I believe there are some advantages there, please check my earlier editorials for more details on that. The only reason that I don’t like the notion of tying up money in it is because it would be sixteen months until returns are realized, so whatever the advantages, I think people could do better on other stuff in that period of time.
When we look at the 2019 question, upon which I am admittedly less sure, the, “Yes,” is going for $0.54/share. I think there might be roughly the same advantage in that market, considering that it is pretty close to 50/50, but at the same time, now you’re floating your money for 28 months to ride that out to conclusion. As with 2018, I think the potential for a better overall return given that period of time likely lies elsewhere.
Current Market Trends
That brings us back to current market trends, which have actually changed pretty significantly in the last few weeks. Here are a few reasons why:
1.) People are getting smarter on the, “Pence as VP, Yes,” by the end of 2017. There was some disparity that floated one way or another on that question as compared to Trump, “Yes,” but people see to be increasingly realizing that the two things are basically the same question. The two markets have recently been either the same (in cost/value) or have only differed by a penny.
2.) People are also increasingly realizing that the value in the, “Yes,” on Trump was there all along, and those who do not realize it do realize they are running out of calendar. Just in the last seven days, the market has went from opening at $0.82/share on the, “Yes,” to opening at $0.86/share, and closed at $0.87.
The only question that really remains for the PredictIt market is, “Does any value remain?” Again, after we consider the 10% of profits PredictIt is kind enough to help itself to as well as the 5% it takes out of withdrawals for United States players (it’s worse if you are abroad due to a flat $40 wire transfer fee) here is what remains:
$100 shares at $0.88 cost $88.
I am going to remain consistent in calling the probability of loss 2%, even though it has almost certainly gone down. If the player wins on 100 shares purchased at $88, the profit will be $12 of which the site removes $1.20 as commission leaving $10.80 and a balance of $98.80. After taking another caustic 5% bath, the player loses an additional $4.94 and cashes out with $93.86 for a realized profit of $5.86.
(5.86 * .98) - (88 * .02) = 3.9828 or expected profit of $3.9828.
That would be on an outlay of $88, so the percentage advantage such a player has would be:
3.9828/88 = .0452590909 or 4.5259% advantage for the, “Yes,” bettor.
The window is closing fast. If we go ahead and round up and call it four months left, then that is an annualized expected profit of 13.5777% and about 1.131475% per month.
I would categorize this bet as, “Not bad,” especially if you are already in the PredictIt market, but there are certainly better opportunities for those who are willing to look for them even semi-aggressively.
Still, there is almost no disputing that there is an advantage to be had, but the window is about to be closed, caulked and sealed. It’s difficult to imagine that there is anything (other than delusion) that would move the number meaningfully down at this point. That is, absent the demise of either Trump or Pence, of course...but then the market will effectively resolve at $0.01/$0.99 almost immediately.
In the meantime, I’m going to use Ladbrokes because William Hill won’t even let me friggin’ see their site. (That’s why I’ve been using Ladbrokes so consistently, by the way) And we take a look at their current odds:
Trump to be replaced in 2017: 5/1
When we look at that, we note that the player either wins $500 or loses $100, straight up. Again, I’m going to use my actual probability of the event of 2%:
(500 * .02) - (.98 * 100) = -88 or -$88
The player expects to lose $88 for a negative expectation of about 88%. It is no surprise that LadBrokes IS NOT offering a line on Trump NOT being replaced in 2017. They would rather take free money than give away free money, and also, the probability of Trump no longer being in office by way of death is something that they are more than happy to take a 100% risk on. No hedging on this for them, Ladbrokes is straight up making a bet.
A casino making a bet. That should tell you something.
Anyway, an individual could buy 833 PredictIt shares for $99.96 at $0.12/share on the No when the price inevitably solidifies, and it will, at that point. The person would win $0.88 per share which would result in a win of $733.04 overall, of which PredictIt will help themselves to $73.31 (I assume they always round up) leaving the player with profits of $659.73 and a balance of $759.69.
Of that $759.69, the player will eat 5% if he chooses to withdraw which would be $37.99 (again, always rounding up) for a realized return of $721.70 and realized profit of $621.74.
Interestingly, this results in the following expectation based on an assumed 98/2 probability:
(621.74 * .02) - (99.96 * .98) = -85.526 or -$85.526
The expected loss of $85.526 against an outlay of $99.96 yields the following disadvantage:
85.526/99.96 = .8556022409 or 85.56022409%
The disadvantage is still huge, but the interesting thing is that the disadvantage and expected loss between Ladbrokes and PredictIt (with exception to the $40 wire transfer fee for offshore PredictIt users) has flip-flopped just in the last two weeks! Two weeks ago, Ladbrokes was the better choice if you wanted the, “Trump removed,” by the end of this year, now PredictIt is superior for users who do not have to eat the fee.
Fascinating, and something to keep an eye on if you really want the, “No,” on Trump finishing out the year. You’re making a ridiculously stupid bet at this point, either way, if you do take the, ‘No,’ but you might as well get the least negative value.
For PredictIt users overseas, if you deduct that flat fee, then you realize profits of $581.74, instead. Here’s how that works out:
(581.74 * .02) - (99.96 * .98) = -86.326 or -$86.326
Relative to your $99.96 outlay, a disadvantage of 86.36054422%.
I am still fascinated by this development, even if you are outside of the United States, you are better off with PredictIt than Ladbrokes if, for whatever bizarre reason, you want the, ‘No.’
Granted, that could change anytime in the event that LadBrokes moves its line, so if you are still interested in betting the, ‘No,’ (Why?) make sure to keep an eye on that.
That’s it you guys, it’s been fun, but it’s probably over for this year (other than the Comments section!). We’ve had a really great time (at least, I have) looking at the betting markets for Trump to be ousted before the end of this year, but it’s going to take some sort of catastrophe for the markets to change much now.
There’s not much to take away from this other than that there is still value on the, “Yes,” he will remain in office, but that window is SLAMMING shut. It might not even be there anymore by the time you read this. That’s honestly one of the main reasons I wrote this, even though it also made for a great exercise in determining the source of Trump’s (limited) approval, to give everyone one laast chance.
Other than the fact that you are wrong, if you think there is value in betting that Trump will end up out of office before the end of the year, you will now want to float between PredictIt and other sites to determine your best value. It might be on PredictIt, which is better than Ladbrokes as of the time of this writing. If you have learned nothing else from this series of editorials, I hope you have at least learned how to identify your best value.
Barring death, Trump will still be in office next year, so we’ll have the chance to do this again! I will see all you guys then, as well as in the comments. Thank you so much for all of the support in following and commenting on this series of Articles. This probably wouldn’t even be fun if I didn’t know some of you guys enjoy this series so much!