Gibraltar Unveils First Prediction Market Rules

Gibraltar has introduced what it describes as the world's first standalone regulatory framework for prediction markets, establishing a dedicated legal structure for the sector under the Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025. The new regulations took effect on 13 July and create a separate statutory category for prediction market operators, replacing the previous approach of licensing such activity under existing gambling provisions.

The government said the framework is intended to provide regulatory certainty for a sector that continues to evolve while setting standards for market integrity, participant protection and financial crime prevention. Regulations published in the Gibraltar Gazette by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry adopt what officials describe as an "activity-based and risk-based approach" to supervision.

Nigel Feetham KC MP announced the framework's implementation after months of consultation with industry participants and prospective operators. In a statement, he said: "Today, Gibraltar becomes the first jurisdiction in the world to adopt a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets."

New Licensing Model Takes Effect

The regulations establish prediction market activity as a distinct licensing category with its own operational requirements and supervisory arrangements. Every event contract must receive approval and certification from the Gambling Authority before it can be offered.

Operators must demonstrate that contracts are capable of objective settlement, resistant to manipulation and aligned with the framework's regulatory objectives. The rules also require systems to detect and prevent market manipulation, insider dealing and misuse of confidential information.

The authority retains powers to prohibit contracts it considers contrary to the public interest. The list includes markets relating to criminal conduct, terrorism, war, death and serious injury. The framework also allows restrictions on contracts presenting elevated risks involving insider trading, consumer protection or Gibraltar's reputation.

An independent supervisory panel has been established to oversee implementation. The framework also addresses governance, operational resilience, safeguarding of client assets, anti-money laundering measures, sanctions compliance, financial resources and wind-down planning.

Early licensees and international outlook

The government confirmed it will shortly issue the first prediction market licence under the new regime. An Approval in Principle has already been granted to a second operator, while a third is expected in the coming weeks.

ADI Predictstreet previously operated under a betting intermediary licence before the new legislation came into force. WagerWire has also secured Approval in Principle and plans to launch business-to-business and consumer-facing prediction market products ahead of the NFL preseason and the start of international football in August.

Speaking about the framework, Feetham said: “This framework is the product of extensive engagement with industry professionals, prospective operators and investors over recent months.”

The minister also said the government had received interest from several prospective applicants, including internationally recognised companies.

WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger welcomed the framework, saying: “This is a landmark moment for the prediction market industry. By focusing on market integrity, innovation, and responsible oversight, Gibraltar has established a thoughtful framework that gives operators the clarity they need to build for the long term.”

The launch comes as regulators in multiple jurisdictions continue debating whether prediction markets should fall under gambling or financial services laws. Gibraltar's legislation instead establishes a dedicated framework designed specifically for the sector.

Source:

“Today, Gibraltar becomes the first jurisdiction in the world…”, linkedin.com “Nigel Feetham KC MP”, Jul 13, 2026