Prediction Markets Expand Share During World Cup

Prediction market platforms significantly increased their share of US sports betting during the FIFA World Cup, with new estimates suggesting they accounted for roughly 27% of all legal wagering activity during the tournament.

Data from H2 Gambling Capital indicated that prediction markets represented about 27% of legal US sports betting volume during the World Cup, compared with 9% at the start of 2026. The figures rely on publicly available data from the tournament's opening month and remain estimates because sportsbooks and prediction markets calculate activity differently. Sportsbook operators have also yet to release their complete tournament figures.

The estimates nevertheless highlight how quickly prediction market operators have expanded their presence in sports-related trading during one of the year's biggest events.

Kalshi Records Rapid Growth

Kalshi emerged as the leading prediction market platform throughout the tournament, repeatedly surpassing its previous trading records. According to Bloomberg, activity during the World Cup reached nearly 10 times the levels seen earlier in the year and exceeded the peak generated during the New York Knicks' playoff run shortly before the tournament.

Apptopia data showed Kalshi's mobile application attracted more daily users during the World Cup than either DraftKings or FanDuel, the two largest US online sportsbooks.

Kalshi said it added 3 million new users over the course of the tournament. User-generated data published through Dune Analytics also indicated Kalshi handled more than twice the trading volume of rival Polymarket during the competition.

Ian Moore, an analyst at Bernstein, said the expansion has "put feet to the fire for these traditional sportsbooks to start offering a similar service." He added that prediction markets represent "a new opportunity for everyone."

Sportsbooks Respond to Growing Competition

The World Cup provided prediction market operators with an opportunity to promote their products through extensive marketing campaigns and an expanded range of sports-related contracts. Kalshi also secured advertising on digital perimeter boards during matches in the later stages of the tournament.

Prediction market operators can accept customers aged 18 and above and are permitted under federal rules to operate in states where traditional sports betting remains unavailable. Sportsbooks generally require customers to be at least 21 years old.

FanDuel and other sportsbook operators have started introducing their own prediction market offerings as competition increases. A FanDuel spokesperson said the company could not discuss wider market trends ahead of its financial results but noted that the "World Cup has seen record interest from our customers throughout the competition, with the top 10 soccer games by handle in our history all coming during this year's tournament."

Despite Kalshi's rapid expansion, analysts do not expect prediction markets to fully replace conventional sportsbooks. H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin said: "It's pretty clear that prediction markets have had a very good World Cup."

Birkin added: "I think they are less of a threat than some people make out, but they are definitely eating around the edges and these customers will allow them to continue growing their business."

Source:

“Prediction Markets Swell to 27% of Sports Bets During World Cup”, finance.yahoo.com, Jul 19, 2026