RESOLVED: 3dice

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Last post made 4 days ago by tough_nut
ds6551331
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  • ds6551331
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  • the casino pulls or gets 21 four times in the same minute?  that probably gets as close to defying mathematically probability as you can possibly get. Two hands attached on this the other two on another post

  • Hello ds6551331,

    Thank you for providing us with your casino username and all the details about your complaint. We've sent an email to the casino and asked them to look into this. As soon as we receive a reply, we'll let you know.

  • Dear ds6551331,

    I am sorry to hear that you are upset with your play -  I totally understand that.

    The dealer will draw 21 with three cards or more about 7.36% of the time.  On average, that's about once every 14 games.

    The odds of seeing 4 of these in 10 games are then given by 210 * (1/14)**4 * (13/14)**6 = 0.0035 or about 1 in 285 sets of 10 games will have 4 games where the Dealer hits 21.

    While it can be frustrating I am sure, if you play a few hundred hands (and you did ) there's going to be a stretch of 10 games that has 4 dealer 21's in it. Simply put you sadly had a bad run.

    I will follow up with a private email and which I will offer more info if required and help .  I will also be keeping my fingers crossed for you and hope that you will be able to post when you had a good run too in the future .

    Kindest regards,
    Anna

  • Anna its great you are able to supply mathematical probability to the posting I submitted. The more a player knows about mathematical probability the better off they will be. 

    I am hoping you will be able to supply some additional mathematical probability to me for what is below. This will and can only help me or any other player.

    For June 7th:

    11:10PM hands 405212798 to 405212899 (3 hands in a row)

    Dealer gets or pulls 21 three times in a row

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    11:23PM 405214593 to 405214680 (4 hands)

    Dealer gets or pulls 21 three times in four hands

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    11:31PM 405189552 to 405189663 (4 hands)

    Dealer gets or pulls 21 three times in four hands

    Within a timespan of 21 minutes it happened three times? What would the probability of that be?

    Note if it is chalked up to a streak of bad luck which you state, please look at same day 8:06PM 405189552 to 405189663. It happened again dealer pulling or getting 21 three times in four hands. Or the same timeframe as above 11:00PM to 11:01PM where the dealer wins 9 hands in a row? That answer I believe is 1 in 1,000. 

    Are you able to provide mathmatical probability on all this.

    You are 100% correct. My RTP ratio is line. The reason being because of the above? That is just a question. Quite oddly what is quite perplexing is where does it happen for the player?

     

  • Dear ds6551331,

    Sorry for not replying sooner - I had a busy few days .

    Here is what our math guy says :).

    The formula to calculate what the odds are of seeing 21 for the dealer k times in n hands is easy enough to enter in google.

    It is 1/((n choose k) * (0.0736^k) * (0.9264^(n-k)))

    where you replace all occurrences of n and k with the number of games (n) and the number of times the dealer draws 21 (k).

    Feel free to plug in your scenarios. For example the occurrence of the dealer pulling 21 one in 3 games (k) out of 4 (n) is then

    1/((4 choose 3) * (0.0736^3) * (0.9264^1)) = 676.87

    (https://www.google.com/search?q=%281%2F%28%284+choose+3%29+*+%280.0736%5E3%29+*+%280.9264%5E1%29%29%29)

    What this means is that if someone plays 676.87 hands, there is going to be, on average one sequence of 4 hands where the dealer hits up to 21 three times.

    One always has to be a bit careful to correctly interpret these odds, as we typically only start calculating them when our luck is down.

    We then tend to select out short sequences in which we find events unlikely. This is however not a valid approach - they even have a specific name for this in statistics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias).

    Statistically, the only samples you can make that are valid are either random (pick random 10.000 hands) - or all samples - it is good to be aware of this.

    We hope the formula above helps you gain some more insight into all of this - and be sure to only play when you are comfortable doing so!

    Kind regards,

    Anna

  • Since the player received answers to his questions we will mark this complaint as resolved thumbs_up

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